Unemployment Hysteresis and the Natural Rate of Vacancies
On the basis of macro data from 10 OECD countries, I find that the job vacancy rate outperforms the unemployment rate as a reliable measure of domestic inflationary pressure. Moreover, while the rate of unemployment affects inflation primarily through its difference, the vacancy rate operates through a level effect as well. In most countries, a unique equilibrium rate of vacancies seems to coexist with a drifting equilibrium rate of unemployment. I show that this result is consistent with existing theories of unemployment hysteresis that focus on depreciation of human capital and search activity during unemployment spells.
Unemployment. Vacancies, Persistence, Hysteresis
E24, J63, J64