Frischseminar: Frikk Nesje

Early warnings about catastrophic shifts improve management but encourage risk taking

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Abstrakt: We study how receiving an early warning signal (EWS) about tipping may improve ecosystem management. Many socio-ecological systems, from the climate to coral reefs, are expected collapse once pressure exceeds a tipping point. A fundamental problem is that the exact location of these tipping points is almost always unknown. We start from a standard ecosystem model that has an unknown tipping point and produces EWS.  We show the necessary steps to productively use the additional information of the EWS. We discuss critical dimensions of EWS design and highlight conditions under which the existence of an EWS may actually increase the risk of ecosystem collapse in a managed system.

Publisert 29. juli 2021 12:38 - Sist endret 25. okt. 2021 09:34