Young and Out: An Application of a Prospects-Based Concept of Social Exclusion


Raaum, Oddbjørn, Jon Rogstad, Knut Røed and Lars Westlie




Journal of Socio-Economics

Vol. 38, 173-187.


We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal Logit-model. Youths are considered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low predicted probability of re-entering in the near future. Implemented on extraordinary rich event history data of compulsory school graduates, we estimate social exclusion among Norwegian youths and find that social exclusion propensity is (i) non-cyclical; (ii) much more prevalent among young adults in their early twenties than among teenagers; (iii) strongly dependent on family background; and (iv) independent of gender.


Oppdragsgiver: Norges forskningsråd
Oppdragsgivers prosjektnr.:
Frisch prosjekt: 1131 - Social background, early unemployment experiences and marginalisation