Prospects for Norwegian Petroleum Extraction and implications for the Norwegian Economy as a whole

Project managerOle Røgeberg
ClientNorges forskningsråd via SSB
Client project no.233687
ParticipantsBernt Bratsberg
Rolf Golombek
Period2014 - 2017

Project description

The project will analyse the medium and long-run prospects of the Norwegian petroleum sector and its role for the economy as a whole. For this purpose, the first stage of the project will identify the up and downstream factors that affect the extraction on the Norwegian continental shelf and their quantitative and qualitative impacts. This involves looking at petroleum prices, rig rates and wage formation in the petroleum sector. We will also analyse current and alternative Norwegian policy regimes towards the petroleum industry and their possible impacts on the future size and profitability of the petroleum sector. This first stage will combine ex post econometric analyses and model projections by means of global numerical energy models. The numerical models we use facilitate a particular focus on the Arctic sector, and the Norwegian and Russian Arctic will be given special attention to increase our understanding on main factors determining the development of the Arctic as an oil and gas arena. In the next stage we will look at the role of the Norwegian petroleum extraction sector for the Norwegian economy as a whole. Among other questions, we will be able to say more about the risks of developing Dutch disease in Norway. Based on econometric analysis of worker flows (foreign and domestic) into and out of the petroleum sector and macroeconomic models, we will examine the extent to which the sector functions as an entry-port for high-skilled migrants, and the extent to which the sector provides workers with valuable knowledge and skills that spills over to the mainland economy as the workers leave the sector. We will also study spillovers between R&D areas and knowledge spillovers through international trading and networking, with a focus on how these affect Norwegian economic development in the future as the petroleum extraction era is coming closer to an end.


Other publications

Bratsberg, Bernt, Oddbjørn Raaum, Ole RøgebergMigrant Labor in the Norwegian Petroleum Sector2017Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 420[PDF]