Working life after the Norwegian pension reform

Project managerErik Hernæs
ClientNorges forskningsråd
Client project no.220746
ParticipantsChristian Brinch
Simen Gaure
Zhiyang Jia
Simen Markussen
Knut Røed
Steinar Strøm
Tao Zhang
Period2012 - 2017

Project description

The direct and immediate effects of the pension reform is to increase the economic return from work among large groups of the elderly in the private sector and to increase liquidity by giving access to actuarially adjusted pension take up. Indirectly, the reform may also induce changes in the occupational pensions and in wage growth. Also, the reform of the private sector AFP increases income for employees in AFP firms, which may reduce work activity. The total effect on work, earnings and income distribution is dependent also on the reform of the disability pension and the tax system. This will be investigated in a series of analyses, starting with a thorough mapping of economic work incentives under the new system. We then analyse labour supply effects in differences-in-differences approach, using both event history and regression analyses. We will also analyse changes in the structure and scope of occupational pensions, and interactions between these and wage growth. The reform may increase work activity among younger persons who wish to compensate for the longevity adjustment, and analyses of such effects may provide valuable insight into forward looking behaviour. The results of the partial analyses will be drawn together to provide a more complete overview of the effects, including changes in the earnings distribution. We will explore whether data are sufficient to explore health outcomes. The results will also provide a basis for simulations with an economy wide perspective, like micro simulation models and macroeconomic models.


Scientific Journal

Brinch, C.N., E. Hernæs, Z. JiaSalience and Social Security Benefits2017Journal of Labor Economics Vol 35(1)[PDF] [DOI]
Hernæs, Erik, Simen Markussen, John Piggott, Knut RøedPension reform and labor supply2016Journal of Public Economics Vol 142, 39-55.[PDF] [DOI]


This series is published by the Department of Economics, University of Oslo, in cooperation with the Frisch Centre. The list below only contains those memoranda written in connection with projects at the Frisch Centre. A complete list of memoranda is found at http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-7118

Brinch, Christian N., Erik Hernæs and Zhiyang JiaSalience and Social Security Benefits2015No. 13[PDF]

Other publications

Hernæs, Erik, Zhiyang Jia, John Piggott and Trond Christian VigtelFlexible Pensions and Labor Force Withdrawal2019WP 2019/3, Cepar[PDF]
Hernæs, E., S. Markussen, J. Piggott and K. RøedPension Reform and Labor Supply: Flexibility vs. Prescription2015IZA Discussion paper no 8812[PDF]