Prospects for Norwegian Petroleum Extraction and implications for the Norwegian Economy as a whole
Number | 3164 |
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Project manager | Ole Røgeberg |
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Client | Norges forskningsråd via SSB |
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Client project no. | 233687 |
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Participants | Bernt Bratsberg Rolf Golombek |
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Period | 2014 - 2017 |
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Project description
The project will analyse the medium and long-run prospects of the
Norwegian petroleum sector and its role for the economy as a whole. For
this purpose, the first stage of the project will identify the up and downstream
factors that affect the extraction on the Norwegian continental shelf and
their quantitative and qualitative impacts. This involves looking at petroleum
prices, rig rates and wage formation in the petroleum sector. We will
also analyse current and alternative Norwegian policy regimes towards
the petroleum industry and their possible impacts on the future size and
profitability of the petroleum sector. This first stage will combine ex post
econometric analyses and model projections by means of global numerical
energy models. The numerical models we use facilitate a particular focus
on the Arctic sector, and the Norwegian and Russian Arctic will be given
special attention to increase our understanding on main factors determining
the development of the Arctic as an oil and gas arena.
In the next stage we will look at the role of the Norwegian petroleum
extraction sector for the Norwegian economy as a whole. Among other
questions, we will be able to say more about the risks of developing Dutch
disease in Norway. Based on econometric analysis of worker flows (foreign
and domestic) into and out of the petroleum sector and macroeconomic
models, we will examine the extent to which the sector functions as an
entry-port for high-skilled migrants, and the extent to which the sector
provides workers with valuable knowledge and skills that spills over to
the mainland economy as the workers leave the sector. We will also
study spillovers between R&D areas and knowledge spillovers through
international trading and networking, with a focus on how these affect
Norwegian economic development in the future as the petroleum extraction
era is coming closer to an end.
Publications
Other publications