Frisch seminar: Anne-Sophie Crépin

Cascading regime shifts in pollution recipients and resource systems

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Abstrakt: Ecosystems can undergo regime shifts -- large, abrupt and persistent

changes in their structure and function. These regime shifts can

interact with each other creating cascading effects. We explore

potential characteristics of such interactions and their outcomes. We

focus on two types of systems where regime shifts can substantially

influence human welfare and livelihoods: pollution recipients, such as

the atmosphere and water bodies, and renewable resources, such as wild

animal stocks.  We set up a dynamic modeling framework where patches of

either pollution recipients or resource producing systems interact with

each other. We identify clear mechanisms, through which cascading

effects can either increase the probability of a shift in a particular

patch or decrease it. We also investigate the conditions for optimal

control of such systems. We show that spatial dispersion can trigger

regime shifts in controlled and uncontrolled systems compared to systems

without dispersion.


Published July 29, 2021 1:08 PM - Last modified Nov. 5, 2021 2:32 PM