How Tight is the Labour Market? Sources of Changes in the Aggregate Exit Rate from Unemployment across the Business Cycle
Forfattere:
Gaure, S. og Røed, K.
År:
2007
Referanse:
Journal of Business cycle Measurement and Analysis
Vol., 3, No. 2, 155 - 174.Sammendrag (engelsk)
We decompose variations in the aggregate exit rate from unemployment to employ-ment into two factors: i) Changes in the arrival rate of acceptable job offers; and ii) changes in the composition of the unemployment pool in terms of average employ-ability. We argue that the former of these factors provides the basis for an informative labour market tightness indicator, while the latter yields valuable information regard-ing the design of optimal labour market policies across the cycle. Based on Norwe-gian register data, we find that individual monthly exit rates tend to double from a cy-clical trough to a cyclical peak, ceteris paribus, but that cross-sectional heterogeneity nevertheless explains 88 per cent of the overall variation in individual monthly exit probabilities during the period from 1989 to 2002.
Nøkkelord:
Labour market tightness, Business cycles, Unemployment
JEL:
C41, E32, J64
Prosjekt info:
Oppdragsgiver: Aetat Arbeidsdirektoratet og FinansdepartementetOppdragsgivers prosjektnr.:
Frisch prosjekt: 1412 - Stramhetsindikator for arbeidsmarkedet
Kontakt:
knut.roed@frisch.uio.no
Finansiering:
the Norwegian Directorate of Labour and the Norwegian Ministry of Finance