Phasing out nuclear power in Europe
Abstract: Following the Fukushima accident in 2011, some EU member states decided to phase out nuclear power. We explore the impact of an EU-wide nuclear phase out provided the EU policy to reduce GHG emissions by 40 percent in 2030 relative to 1990 is implemented. Using a numerical simulation model of the European energy industry (LIBEMOD), we find that a complete nuclear phase out in Europe by 2030 has a moderate impact on total production of electricity and only a tiny impact on total consumption of energy. Lower nuclear production is to a large extent replaced by more renewable electricity production, in particular wind power and bio power. More generally, the equilibrium composition of electricity technologies reflects the stringency of the climate target, which climate instruments that are imposed and whether some technologies are being promoted, either directly through subsidies or indirectly through a tailor-made policy goal. We also find that the derived renewable share in energy demand in 2030 is 35 percent after a nuclear phase out, and 29 percent without a nuclear phase out.
Aune, Finn Aune, Rolf Golombek and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier
Nummer i serie: 5
Prosjekt:3100 - Oslo Center for Research on Environmentally friendly Energy (CREE)